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Aug
17, 2012
The
perfect storm. I talked about the convergence of fundamental
storms on the US dollar. There's another bizarre perfect storm
taking place.
In
gold. Please click
here now. Gold continues to hint it's ready to burst up
from the symmetrical triangle formation. That breakout targets
$1710, which itself is a breakout from the super-wedge.
The
head & shouldering action going on now indicates "breakout
is imminent". The head of that h&s pattern
is itself a h&s bottom.
The
convergence of storms is this: There is a huge contingent of
"super-bulls" in the gold community. They believe we
are at a point in the debt crisis, where a "third wave"
begins, like in the 1970s, and gold bursts out of the
super-wedge and leaps to tremendous heights, without really
looking back. They believe the debt crisis is at the point of
no return, and the point where the dollar could collapse in a
pile of hyperinflationary dust, sending gold thousands of
dollars higher, and maybe even silver thousands of dollars
higher.
At
the same time, the gold community's traitors have identified
themselves, and have begun buying the bond, and shorting gold
stocks, both with leverage. Like all certified crack-heads,
they have to throw in a huge dollop of Dow shorts.
What
we have here is a collision of the super-bulls with the
super-traitors; aggressive gold buyers meeting aggressive gold
stock shorters.
The
super-bulls are quite deep-pocketed, and are likely to win the
battle. The only concern is the amount of capital they are
plopping into gold with in this area. It seems the banksters
are supporting gold in the $1500 area, and moving gold on the
chart closer to the edge of the super-wedge supply line,
deliberately, to coincide with the appearance of some unknown
but wildly gold-bullish fundamental event.
Gold
likely goes to the highest prices targeted by the super-bulls,
but not in their time frame. I believe we are going to
somewhere between $2100 and $3000 by 2015. I think gold stocks
will be the bullish story in play as that happens, not
bullion.
A
dramatic fall of the dollar to deep new lows could raise the
upside quite substantially.
I
see the public getting poorer and poorer, and like in the
1930s, buying gold will be the last thing on the planet that
interests them. By the time this crisis "ends",
they'll be so poor that they couldn't buy any gold even if
they were ordered to do so at gunpoint.
Institutional
money managers are a different story. Huge numbers of the best
managers are now watching gold stocks closely. They understand
the valuation story. A little more worsening of the debt
crisis that is met with more commitment to money printing
without real austerity, and they will begin to buy
gold stocks. PERIOD.
Please click
here now. The great thing about shooting up with heroin is
that you either quit doing it, or die. Sin a little means have
a glass of wine, not a bag of heroin. There's nothing wrong
with shorting a little Dow here, via range PGEN. But if you
are a lifetime market loser who just blew out all your gold
stocks at huge losses, and replaced that clown act with
pouring money into shorts on the Dow, to "get
it, and make it pay",
and are walled up in a room screaming analysis-rants of why
the Dow must surely tank and stay tanked, you're defined as an
idiot on heroin.
I
don't believe the massive slippage that
happened on the natgas fund UNG-nyse was solely due to
slippage caused when rolling over futures contracts. I hold
natgas futures and I never noticed the UNG-style drawdowns.
I
think a clearinghouse shell-game that involved counterfeiting
UNG stock and shorting it also played a role. Regardless, the
pgen to zero mitigates most of
that robbery, and I don't think UNG is exhibiting the kind of
slippage it was.
UNG
was frequently "unavailable for shorting" as it
rallied, whereas most highly liquid stocks are unavailable for
shorting after price tanks.
Was
it unavailable for shorting by bankster-financed hedge funds,
or just unavailable to YOU? After it fell, it became magically
available for shorting again. I wonder why?
You
can't approach the world's most volatile commodity with
anything other than a pgen to zero, or it will be "you
to zero", not natgas to zero, that is the ending of
this story.
[Yes,
but UNG could drizzle away like a 3x or -3x fund just on
trading losses.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-08-16/natural-gas-and-brutal-dethroning-king-coal
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/7/17/the-natural-gas-massacre-and-the-price-spike.html
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/6/20/natural-gas-where-endless-money-went-to-die.html
]
Please click
here now. The big HSR lines on the monthly T-bond chart
are the professional gambler's profit-booking guide lines.
Price has arrived at 146, on very small weakness, after
monster strength took it to 153.
The
banksters sold into the top, so they are booking some profit
here. This 146 HSR could cause a bounce in price. We can't
know if price then declines to 142, 136, and 123, but what we
do know is that if price does decline there, and you book no
profits at all, the banksters might reverse things and take it
all away.
It's
important to understand that Ben Bernanke has called for
extended low rates, right into 2014. He didn't say, "If
one TIC report comes in negative, there's no way I can control
a tanking bond market, and I'll just scream in panic while
rates skyrocket, bond prices plummet, and all TBT-nyse players
book profits at a price of infinity."
It's
very critical that the professional gambler doesn't fall under
the spell of the pipe-dreamers, who believe every decline in
the bond is the beginning of the fulfillment of their wildest
fantasies.
It
is the dollar that Ben and Tim will attack if there are more
negative TIC reports. That's
ultra-bullish for gold. In the meantime, bond shorters need to
be realistic about the very good profits offered to their cash
registers at 146, 142, 136, and 123. Greed is the great
destroyer. Will he destroy.... YOU?
It's
extremely gold-positive that a tanking bond has been
accompanied by rising gold and gold stock prices. I wouldn't
suggest over-analysing the situation, but just be open to the
possibility that the bond is falling on 3 concerns, which are:
a. The TIC report. b. Inflation concerns. c. A
stronger-than-anticipated economy.
I'll
do a review of the seniors six-pack stock portfolio on the
site this morning. All the reasons spouted by the GCT that
gold and gold stocks should be shorted or sold are
100% garbage.
Gridtime! GDX
powered higher yesterday, so I shorted a tiny molehill bit
against a mountain of longs. The ONLY reason that gold could go
to $1432 is because just too much leveraged capital was placed
on the buy side by somewhat deep-pocketed investors in the
$1500-$1600 zone, and the banksters take price down briefly,
and take that plum for themselves. I don't see it happening,
but I'm 100% prepared to buy that $1432 zone, and GDX $30-$35
zone, if it happens. As long as gold stays in the symmetrical
triangle, odds remain at 90% that the next major move is not
down, but up!
Thanks!
Cheers
St
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